194100 Saint Petersburg,
3 Kantemirovskaya Street, Room 303
At present, the use of modern modeling methods and tools is an essential component of management information systems for a company to succeed in a rapidly changing environment. It is important that simulation is considered today as an obligatory stage of decision-making in oil companies, which use modern information technologies actively. The paper is focused on the description and comparative analysis of system dynamics and agent-based modeling, used for intelligent decision support systems development in transport logistics. The main goal of this research is evaluation of the multi-agent system's role for decision-making processes and management information systems development and creating the model of logistics processes (the process of oil products loading and unloading). It also considers the main determinations and notions of the intellectual agent modelling methodology, gives the types of modeling categorization. The work is based on a generalization of theoretical researches in this area along with international practices and domestic experience.
There is currently a discussion going on in the scientific community about using digital twins and modeling to manage risks in the supply chains. This need for constructing digital twins is caused by the low reliability and stability of supply chains due to the faults in their operation. These faults are a result of risks in the supply chains which can be consolidated into two types. The first type is operational risks. These are the current risks of the supply chain itself caused by an uncertainty of supply and demand as well as by an obstructed flow of information along the supply chain. The second type is critical risks caused by force majeure. These risks disrupt the normal operation of the supply chain and critically reduce the most important performance indicators of the company such as annual income and profits. Risks happen due to natural or man-made causes such as fires and floods in the distribution centers or at production facilities, legal disputes with suppliers, strikes, terrorist attacks on logistics facilities and others. Dynamic simulation and analytical optimization are two dominant technologies for managing risks of the supply chains, which helps to increase their reliability and stability if failures occur. Through optimizing and simulating of the supply chains, companies can generate new infor-mation about the impact of failure and influence the supply chain and its performance by looking at various scenarios that simulate the locations of failures, the duration and recovery policies. An analysis of the literary sources shows that there is no single approach to build the concept for a supply chain digital twin. This article gives an overview of the literature according to this problem and offers the author's point of view on the concept for a supply chain digital twin.
It has been proved by the latest research on key performance indicators
(KPIs) of transportation services that their successful implementation into
practice is possible only if there is a thorough database of indicators and the
methodology of their calculation. To reach these goals, it is necessary to classify
the indicators within the framework of the system which includes the two levels:
the basic (the first) and the specific (the second) KPI. This division allows to
form the complex of models to calculate the basic indicators, which characterize
performance (e.g. performance per hour), time parameters, expenses, reliability,
etc. The article provides the analysis of papers on the methods of transportation
efficiency rating in supply chains and the ways of their development to increase
the efficiency of transportation; the new approach to obtain analytic dependencies
to calculate KPI of transportation on the basis of the integral (factorial)
method of economic analysis; the examples of calculations of some KPIs of
transportation. The suggested KPI models can be used to create programs aimed
at the digitalization of transportation operations in supply chains.
Over the past thirty years, optimization modeling techniques have begun to be actively used in supply chain planning and management. Given the specifics of planning tasks in supply chains, linear programming and its methods such as dynamic programming, stochastic programming and scenario planning have become the most popular. These methods make it possible to optimize the supply chain across numerous databases, each of which corresponds to a scenario describing different options for development in an uncertain future. Despite quite intensive research in this area, dynamic and stochastic programming is still underused by managers to solve application tasks in various fields, including supply chain management. Hence, there is a need for development of new planning models in logistics and supply chain management in the context of incomplete information and methods that are used to investigate situations of risk and uncertainty.
The article covers issues of supply chain modeling being an important step in the decision-
making process. Logistics and supply chain management consider movement and transition
of material flow as well as financial, information and other flows associated with it. The
characteristics of a flow must be measured considering the dynamics of the flow movement.
This determines the importance of simulation modeling in decision-making support system as
the approach involves the implementation of modeling system algorithm functioning in a virtual
The literature analysis, on the one hand, allowed to conclude that the traditional approach
to functioning process characteristics determination involving consistent problem solving on
the level of supply chain element, is limited or not reflecting the specifics of real processes
where the parameters variability in time is possible. On the other hand, there is lack of specific
recommendations on building models based on principles of system dynamics as a simulation
modeling tool which allows to consider process characteristics variability. This determines
the aim of the research a part of which presents supply chain simulation model
illustrating the possibilities of the approach. The results of the work can be used both in practice
for industrial enterprises and for future research.
The current state of management practice is characterized by the presence of a demand to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of logistics processes, on the one hand, and an insufficient level of application of one of the main tools for achieving this goal - optimization modeling, on the other. One of the main reasons of this phenomenon is the lack of a universal basis of the proposed optimization models that does not allow them to be applied widely enough in companies with different business process structures. The aim of the research was to develop a universal, based on the SCOR framework, integrated model for optimizing the logistics service of an enterprise. During the research process, the overview of the developed models for logistics service optimization, the analysis of the limitations of the logistics system optimization models, the adaptation of the map of SCOR process metrics have been carried out; the influence diagram of the optimization model components has been developed; the models of cost optimization and logistics service optimization have been combined into a single integrated optimization model; an algorithm for the optimal solution search has been elaborated; the implementation of the model and algorithm as a program for the solution search has been introduced. As a result, the integrated optimization model based on the components of the SCOR model has been developed, combining the cost and service level optimization models, using the outputs of one model as inputs for another when searching for an optimal solution. Building the optimization model on the basis of the SCOR model components provides universal character of its application, taking into account the set of costs, arising in a logistics system, including indirect ones, and the set of metrics of logistics service reflects the links between functional departments, the ability to maintain a level of total costs at the efficiency frontier, achieving the goal of the profit maximization at the same time, provides a link between the tactical and operational levels of decision-making, which together leads to an increase in the reasonableness and quality of management decisions, and creates prerequisites for the overall optimal functioning of an enterprise logistics system.
The content of the concept of ensuring transparency of the supply chain, which currently attracts the attention of middle and senior managers in a wide range of companies and industries, is disclosed. The analysis of the reasons for the increased interest in the issues of transparency in supply chains, in particular: pressure from the government, consumers, non-governmental organizations, etc. on the management of focus companies, so that they open more information about their supply chains. It has been shown that the reputational costs associated with not meeting these requirements can be very high. It has been shown that the reputational costs associated with not meeting these requirements can be very high. The article explains the meaning of supply chain transparency and provides guidelines and methodology for mapping and expanding progress in understanding SC-Transparency. The analysis is based on overseas DRM experience shared by dozens of companies in all industries of all sizes over the past decade with consistent advances in DRM. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the experience of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - an initiative founded at the MIT Transport and Logistics Center; research by Sourcemap, a provider of supply chain transparency solutions; and research in this area by leading experts and analysts.
The problems of digital transformation of supply chains are considered. A framework for the digital transformation of the supply chain is proposed, which consists of four basic elements: digitalization of customer experience, digitalization of products and services, digitalization of operations / processes, digital transformation of the company / supply chain. The content (functional) structure of four frame blocks is defined and the main components (systems, technologies) that make up the digital content of the framework are described in detail.
A diagram (algorithm) of the supply chain digitalization process has been developed, which includes three main stages: awareness of the need for digitalization, digital vision and strategy, in fact, a digital chain transformation technique.
The process of digital transformation of the supply chain itself includes a number of design decisions related to the formation of a communication network structure (Multi Party Network), in particular using the Blockchain technology, an integrated supply chain planning system, the Digital Twin ecosystem, as well as a digital platform control and monitoring of events in the supply chain (Supply Chain Control Tower).
Rare demand is an important part of the inventory management,
nevertheless there are no any appropriate analytical descriptions or numerical
examples of it except separate papers where considered the possibility to
describe rare demand with Poisson distribution. The divergence between forecasts
and actual data could be explained by the following reasons: the first
one—extreme values in preforecasting period, as well as not significant ‘length’
of the analyzed time period; the second one—taking data for the forecast from
the period of conduction certain actions (sales, promo, etc.), consideration of
these actions might be done with combined forecasting methods. The paper
describes the approach to assessment of inventory consumption for rare demand
based on Poisson distribution. Besides, the paper contains the numerical
examples and analysis of the results.
In today's world digital solutions make life easier in various fields. Digital interaction provides a complete transition to automated systems and electronic document management, opening up new prospects for economic growth of the Eurasian economic Union, including the implementation of the transit potential of the Eurasian economic Union. The article considers digital solutions that can allow to develop the transit potential of the Eurasian economic Union, as well as identifies the existing problems of digitalization
To date, a diverse array of expert assessments for quantitative
(tangible) and qualitative (intangible) objects based on the analytic hierarchy
process (AHP) has been accumulated in various fields of knowledge. The systematization
and analysis of the collected data made it possible to put forward
the hypothesis that some of the indicators (the eigenvalue of the matrix, the
consistency index, and the ration of consistency) can be considered in the form
of aggregates of random variables representing an intellectual product and
reflecting features of human thinking. The systematization and statistical processing
of the results obtained by experts on the basis of the AHP showed that
the distribution functions of the values of expert estimates for the consistency
indices significantly differ from the similar functions of the generated matrices.
The use of digital solutions in various fields of activity today allows you to adapt to the digital needs of customers. The adoption of information technology by the subjects of the transport complex was not quick at the beginning, but development has accelerated since then and now they allow optimizing their activities. The article discusses the current regulatory documents in the field of digitalization of seaports. An analysis of cargo turnover by Russian seaports was made, and it was noted that one of the important factors affecting the increase in this indicator is the implementation of digital solutions. Examples of information technologies in the world and in Russia used in the activities of seaports are given.
In recent years, an increase in interest in museum activities has been observed, the number of museum visitors shows a stable positive trend. The research question of this paper is as follows: which months for museums have maximum and minimum attendance rates? The aim of the research is to predict the number of visitors to United Kingdom museums per month, both at the macro-level (country) and at the level of individual museums. For forecasting purposes, seasonal multiplicative forecasting models with a linear and logarithmic trend are used. The used model makes it possible to identify the seasonal component of each month in the structure of demand for museum services. Three indicators are used to assess the accuracy of the model: Mean Error (ME), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The obtained results allow us to use the developed model for a point forecast of the number of visitors to UK museums for the month. In addition, seasonal components of each month were identified. These indicators make it possible to identify the most active and passive months of visiting museums, and can be used to arrive at managerial decisions concerning the organization of work with museum visitors.
Outsourcing implies the transfer of certain functions to a third-party company or an individual to perform them. The article considers the classification of outsourcing in relation to the subjects of transport space. It is noted that this mechanism can be effectively used by the subjects of transport space in order to increase the efficiency of their functioning.
The success of any logistics provider under the development of a digital economy directly
depends on the decision-making system, taking into account the dynamic nature of
the environment and the optimal construction of the internal structure. In an effort to ensure
a stable economic position in a competitive market, they pay more attention to both process
monitoring, management system analysis and forecasting tasks. At the same time, classic
models based on imitating modelling of processes and systems are proposed; for the study
of control models, it is necessary to supplement the analysis based on structural diagrams
and dynamic links. The use of dynamic links significantly expands the functionality of modelling
methods and allows not only to investigate the stock turn, but also to simulate the control
actions on the system to achieve the specified parameters. Modelling processes based
on dynamic links allows us to investigate the stability of logistics systems, to assess the impact
of disturbances on the system and elements. The proposed management model for the
logistics system is implemented according to the feedback control principle, which additionally
contributes to the formation of a more accurate decision-making system. The developed
model has the ability to scale for different levels of planning and takes into account the
dynamic nature of the processes in the logistics system, taking into account the influence
of the environment. The article additionally outlines the limits of application of simulation modelling
in the AnyLogic environment for the study of control systems, which substantiates the
practical importance of using structural diagrams and dynamic links for logistic systems.
Resents interpretations of some basic terms used in transport logistics in the organization of multimodal transport on the basis of research of official, scientific sources and Internet resources