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Rare demand is an important part of the inventory management,
nevertheless there are no any appropriate analytical descriptions or numerical
examples of it except separate papers where considered the possibility to
describe rare demand with Poisson distribution. The divergence between forecasts
and actual data could be explained by the following reasons: the first
one—extreme values in preforecasting period, as well as not significant ‘length’
of the analyzed time period; the second one—taking data for the forecast from
the period of conduction certain actions (sales, promo, etc.), consideration of
these actions might be done with combined forecasting methods. The paper
describes the approach to assessment of inventory consumption for rare demand
based on Poisson distribution. Besides, the paper contains the numerical
examples and analysis of the results.
To date, a diverse array of expert assessments for quantitative
(tangible) and qualitative (intangible) objects based on the analytic hierarchy
process (AHP) has been accumulated in various fields of knowledge. The systematization
and analysis of the collected data made it possible to put forward
the hypothesis that some of the indicators (the eigenvalue of the matrix, the
consistency index, and the ration of consistency) can be considered in the form
of aggregates of random variables representing an intellectual product and
reflecting features of human thinking. The systematization and statistical processing
of the results obtained by experts on the basis of the AHP showed that
the distribution functions of the values of expert estimates for the consistency
indices significantly differ from the similar functions of the generated matrices.
Outsourcing implies the transfer of certain functions to a third-party company or an individual to perform them. The article considers the classification of outsourcing in relation to the subjects of transport space. It is noted that this mechanism can be effectively used by the subjects of transport space in order to increase the efficiency of their functioning.
The success of any logistics provider under the development of a digital economy directly
depends on the decision-making system, taking into account the dynamic nature of
the environment and the optimal construction of the internal structure. In an effort to ensure
a stable economic position in a competitive market, they pay more attention to both process
monitoring, management system analysis and forecasting tasks. At the same time, classic
models based on imitating modelling of processes and systems are proposed; for the study
of control models, it is necessary to supplement the analysis based on structural diagrams
and dynamic links. The use of dynamic links significantly expands the functionality of modelling
methods and allows not only to investigate the stock turn, but also to simulate the control
actions on the system to achieve the specified parameters. Modelling processes based
on dynamic links allows us to investigate the stability of logistics systems, to assess the impact
of disturbances on the system and elements. The proposed management model for the
logistics system is implemented according to the feedback control principle, which additionally
contributes to the formation of a more accurate decision-making system. The developed
model has the ability to scale for different levels of planning and takes into account the
dynamic nature of the processes in the logistics system, taking into account the influence
of the environment. The article additionally outlines the limits of application of simulation modelling
in the AnyLogic environment for the study of control systems, which substantiates the
practical importance of using structural diagrams and dynamic links for logistic systems.
Resents interpretations of some basic terms used in transport logistics in the organization of multimodal transport on the basis of research of official, scientific sources and Internet resources
In the article, in order to optimize logistics activities, is developed the architectural approach to the design of the operating model of the business system in the context of its main stages – the identification of strategic requirements, the construction of a system of top-level processes (value chains) and models of functional systems. The model is based on a conceptual map of logistics activities.
A review of the materials on the state of the organization of logistics activities in Russia is carried out, showing that at most enterprises the logistics service is not endowed with integrating functions of flow management.
A universal normative template for building activity systems is proposed, on the basis of which (on the example of a particular enterprise) the procedure of architectural modeling of the logistics system is given.
Functional logistics systems are considered as a complex of competence Centers, which allows us to further consider the owner of the functional system of "logistics management", while giving him the appropriate authority as a Manager, ensuring the integrative nature of all components of the logistics system of the enterprise.
Thus, the architectural model creates a platform for the integration of logistics activities of the organization, which leads to a systemic effect (due to the growth of coherence of all elements). This, in turn, gives a sharp increase in business efficiency, and also serves as the basis for designing the optimal organizational structure and digital transformation of this area of activity.
Stock-out – an inventory shortage, is a situation which periodically or constantly
retailers, networks of retail trade (and other commercial organizations connected
with replenishment and stocks expenditure) face worldwide. Numerous publications
of foreign authors proposing practical solutions for such organizations is
a vivid example of it. Some retail chain stores and enterprises even issue guidebooks
to handle stock-out.
In domestic literature, there are publications describing various stock-out
forms, as well as recommendations associated with the decision-making on them.
Nevertheless, the experience connected with the prevention and struggle
against the stock-out consequences is uncoordinated, lacks common structure, and
sequence of actions. An enterprise facing stock-out receives only fragmentary data
on the nature of this phenomenon, necessary instruments of influence and the sequence
To give an idea of the existing spectrum of analytical approaches and possible
practical solutions, is one of the main objectives of this article. At the same time,
issues related directly to determining the stock volume and other parameters of a
company's inventory management system are considered. Based on the analysis
of the issues described above, a possible algorithm of actions an organization can
follow in the event of a stock-out, is presented. The possible development of an approach
to manage the most complex stock-out case – «with a lost demand» is also
The paper discusses the problem of defining the characteristics of processes related to development and implementation of telecommunication technologies. These characteristics must reflect an adequate assessment of expectations for the implementation of new technologies and be a basis for correct and relevant decision-making, which should lead to key competitive advantages, both for an individual enterprise and the economy of the country as a whole. The above circumstances have predetermined the topicality of the research study, whose aim at this stage is to assess the adequacy of the analytical model, which is developed on the basis of Gartner’s hype cycle model and reflects the dependence of expectations for the technology on a time factor. The results of analytical modeling have been obtained on the example of the commonly used telecommunication technology Bluetooth. The source data included a number of articles on the relevant subject from Scopus database. Based on the obtained results, it has been concluded on the working capacity of the used model and recommendations have been given on its possible improvement.
Statement of Research. A need to reduce the increasing number of system vulnerabilities caused by unauthorized software installed on computer aids necessitates development of an approach to automate the data-storage media audit. The article describes an approach to identification of informative assembly instructions. Also, the influence of a chosen feature that is used to create a unified program signature on identification result is shown. Methods. Shannon method allowing a determination of feature informativeness for a random number of object classes and not depending on the sample volume of observed features is used to calculate informativeness. Identification of elf-files was based on applying statistical chi-squared test of homogeneity. Main Findings. Quantitative characteristics of informativeness for 118 assembly instructions have been obtained. The analysis of experimental results for executable files identification with 10 different features used to create program signatures compared by means of the chi-squared test of homogeneity at significance levels p = 0.05 and p = 0.01 has been carried out. Practical Relevance. The importance of using a particular feature in program signature creation has been discovered, as well as the capability of considering several executable file signatures together to provide a summative assessment on their belonging to a certain program.
The carried out studies show that from the point of view of the issue of efficiency increase of logistical systems, there are several key aspects. Firstly, choice of methods for managing the triad of logistics functions ‘inventory management - warehousing – transportation’, where the inventory management issues are considered as the most relevant ones. Secondly, there is recognized the need to move the studies of multi-level systems within the framework of the concept of supply chain management.
Nowadays, supply chains, which are represented by the distribution system, are widespread in practice. The most common of them are two-level ones with a central supplier at the second level and a certain number of companies at the first level; and multi-level systems of the distribution configuration network in which multi-nomenclature stocks are located. The article is devoted to the design and enhancement of analytical platform for inventory management in such distribution systems.
Modern transport systems are characterized by the development and implementation of intelligent transport technologies. Today, dynamic forecast models are not used in practice in the operation of a passenger terminal. Decision making is based on some regulatory values for passenger traffic, but this is not sufficient for efficient terminal management. Modern passenger terminals are characterized by dynamic process variability and consideration of diverse options, taking into account the criteria of safety, reliability analysis, and the continuous research of passenger processing. For any modern marine passenger terminal, it is necessary to use the tool to simulate passenger flows in dynamics. Only in this way it is possible to obtain the analytical information and use it for decision making when solving the problem of the amount of personnel required for passenger service, transport safety, some forecasting tasks and so on. Of particular relevance is the choice of the mathematical transport model and the practical conditions for the implementation of the model in the real terminal operation. In this article, the analysis technique of intelligent simulation-based terminal services provides a new mathematical model of passenger movement inside the terminal and presents a new software instrument. Moreover, the conditions of implementation of some transportation models during the operation of marine passenger terminal are examined. The study represents an example of analytical information used for the forecast of the terminal operations, the analysis of the workload and the efficiency of the organization of the marine terminal.
Modern processes in the world economy directly affect the development and changes in sea passenger ports and their infrastructure. The principles of organization of the “city-sea passenger port” system are changing and becoming more complex. Recently there has been a significant increase in passenger traffic and cruise ship and ferry traffic in Baltic Sea. Since these objects are complex technical systems consisting of many elements, in their study it is necessary to use the system approach, to solve the problem of structure synthesis and the determination of objective functions. The objective of this publication was to study how the forecast for the development of demand for sea passenger ports (number cruise ships and passengers flow for next year) could be done by combining simulation and forecast functions. These tasks depend on the qualitative construction of specialized information simulation models. Such subsystems should be used by passenger port management for both operational everyday tasks and strategic tasks. One of the main goals of the forecast is the qualitative construction of an analytical function work of the terminal that determines the passenger flow based on real data. The article considers the solution of this problem by using the method of average growth rate and polynomial extrapolation. In the article, the characteristics and infrastructural features of the passenger ports of St. Petersburg are given, and the main directions of development based on the results of simulation are considered. The paper discusses advantages of using such forecast and their introduction in the early stages of operation of the terminal. The study represents an example of analytical information used for the forecast of the terminal load, the analysis of the workload and efficiency of the organization of the marine terminal in operational tasks using analytical function based on real data
This article discusses the results of solving the problems of constructing an integrated schedule of active moving objects automatic control system (AMO ACS), which are based on proposed new approached to active mobile objects automated control system complex modeling. The main advantage of complex modeling (CM) is that the combined use of alternative models, methods and algorithms allows to compensate their objectively existing shortcomings and limitations while enhancing their positive qualities. In the paper, this advantage of CM is illustrated by the example of interconnection AMO ACS analytical logic-dynamic model for planning and scheduling with Petri net simulation model of possible scenarios for the implementation of the corresponding plans under conditions of various kinds of disturbing influences.
Transportation is a key logistics function, which determines the dynamic nature of material flows in logistics
systems. At the same time, transportation is a source of uncertainty of logistics operations performance in the supply chain.Obviously, the development of a new approach for evaluation of the duration of delivery “Just-In-Time” (JIT) will improve the efficiency of supply chains in accordance with one of the major criteria, namely customer satisfaction. One of the basic approaches to make effective management decisions in transportation and other logistic operations is the JIT concept. In the majority of examined sources the JIT concept is described on the verbal level without any usage of calculation dependences.
The paper is devoted to the formation of analytical and simulation models, which allow obtaining the probabilistic
evaluation of the implementation of unimodal and multimodal international transportation JIT. The first model where the order of the operations implementation does not affect final result is formed on the basis of the probability theory: distribution laws composition, theorems of numerical characteristics of random variables, formula of complete probability. The second model accounts the impact of operations implementation order in transportation and their interconnection and is based on the simulation (the method of statistic experiments) and shown as a corresponding algorithm, which allows to consider different limitations (technical, organizational and so on). Considered analytical dependences give the possibility to obtain the necessary estimations of the transport operations implementation according to JIT: mean transportation time, delivery implementation probability by the set moment or the delivery time with the set probability. To carry out some comparative calculations and clarify the algorithm, two international routes have been chosen: the first one is a unimodal road transportation, the second one is a multimodal transportation (road and marine transport). All the data, which is necessary for calculation has been collected on the basis of official information (in particular, the data of tachograph, special questionnaires filled in by the drivers, the survey results of the managers). For unimodal transportations analytical dependences and modelling results give close results. For the combined multimodal transportations taking into account various limitations the preference must be given to the simulation. The modelled indexes take into consideration their intercommunication and definitely estimate the supply chains reliability, and this allows decreasing the uncertainty of the logistic system.
The analysis of perspective directions of development of logistical integration allows to establish the importance of the
formation of mechanisms of management of integrated logistic functions, and also functional complexes. The
complexity of the problem is determined by the variability of the types of interaction between levels in the investigated
multi-level distributed systems, which in turn result in the variety of models of inventory management. They can be
divided into three main subgroups: the first is with independent processes, the second is with coordination and the
third – integrated models.
This article discusses the creation and application of the machine learning approach for the dynamic control of the following parameters of logistic systems: the level of warehouse residues and the delay time of the supplier's machine when the goods are delivered to the company's warehouse. For the analysis of these parameters, two classifiers were created using the logistic regression method, which were able to classify the current state of the system and the level of threat in performing certain operations. For each parameter, a training and test sample were created, which were later used for training and testing classifiers. After completing of training, the monitoring system was able to classify new data in real time that had not been previously reported, which allowed to define the system state for an indefinite period of time. For the classifier, heuristically were created classification rules, which most accurately reflect the state of the logistics system
In this article, we consider the creation of a monitoring system for observing the parameters of logistics systems in real time in the conditions of data deficit.
Our approach to the creation of such a monitoring system is based on the use of artificial neural networks for the classification of information entering the system.
As well, the apparatus of colour stochastic Petri nets were used for data generation that is necessary for training the neural network.